Monday, January 30, 2006

Super Bowl Prediction


Unless you happen to live in a cave in Borneo, you are well aware that the Super Bowl is about to happen. If you DO live in a cave in Borneo, you will miss all the Super bowl hype. (Hmmm.... Any extra room in your cave for a few days?)

Anyhow, everybody and his dog are making predictions on the game, and are going into detail on exactly why the game will go as they are predicting.

Since I haven't followed the teams all season I am uniquely qualified to make a prediction on the game.

If you have any knowledge of statistics, however, you realize that the biggest weakness of statistics is trying to predict the outcome of a single event.

If Seattle and Pittsburgh played the game one hundred times, a good statistical analysis of the stats would give you a fair idea of what percentage of the games would be won by each team.

It's like flipping a coin. If you flip the coin one hundred times, statistically, roughly half would come up heads. The more total times you flip the coin, the closer it will come to being exactly 50-50.

If you only flip it once, you really cannot make a prediction based on statistics, other than it will be either heads or tails.

This all assumes that the coin is balanced so there is no physical reason for one side to come up rather that the other. If there is something asymetrical about the coin that makes it favor one side or the other, then with multiple flips, it will show something other than 50-50. Unless the coin is so heavily modified that it absolutely cannot land on one side, both sides will land sometimes, but one more than the other.

With Seattle and Pittsburgh, both have the skills to win the game. A hasty review on my part reveals that both teams can throw passes, kick field goals, and run for TD's. In short, either team has the ability to win. (DUH!)

(OK, OK, so get to the point!) I am predicting that it will be a relatively conservative, low scoring game, with both teams trying hard not to make major mistakes and beat themselves. The winning team will be the one whose coach has designed the best game plan. The teams themselves are roughly equal.

The game will be won in the last part of the 4th. quarter, or in overtime. It will be a close, but relatively boring game. It will depend on which coach does the better job, and I'll go with Holmgren and the Seahawks, final score 20 to 17.

Feel free to leave your prediction in the comments below!

5 Comments:

At Monday, January 30, 2006 11:49:00 AM, Blogger OXEN said...

I could care less who wins.

It's all about the points at the end of the quarters that matters to me.

I've got

Pitts 0 7 6 1
Seat 7 5 1 0

 
At Monday, January 30, 2006 12:04:00 PM, Blogger Countertop said...

I don't know who will win. Either team has what it takes and has had a couple of weeks to prepare.

I tend to favor Pitt because I think they are going to have more of a homefield advantage (what with Bettis and all) and also because they chose to only come into town today and will be staying 45 minutes outside of Detroit. Plus, they have shown they can win on the road.

Seattle, on the other hand, is too dependent on its homefield advantage and has spent the better part of the last week in Detroit soaking up the joys of Super Bowl week.

Still, they are a tough tough team and I think they have the passing game to open up the running game and score on Pitt (not to mention that in recent weeks its been Pitts passing game that opens up the run - a reversal of 30+ years of Steeler tradition).

In the end, I am reluctant to make any prediction other than I don't think it will be close. It should be, but I think someones gonna drop the ball and this will turn into another blow out. If I had to choose one team to win, it would be Pitt but it could just as easily be Seattle in a blowout.

 
At Monday, January 30, 2006 2:20:00 PM, Blogger Josh said...

Seattle by a fairly hefty margin.

They've got one of the most talented, yet underrated, defenses in the league. Look what they did against Delhomme! I look for at least one fumble recovery or INT run back for a TD.

Plus, factor in Hasselbecks dominance in the second half, Stevens emergence as a great TE, Jurevicious' sticky hands and Shaun Alexander the MVP.

Pitt's got Bettis, who'll be hard to stop, plus Big Ben hooking up with Ward and Miller. Overall though, I think Seattles D will neutralize the passing threat. And I look for two temper tantrums out of Troy Popatoometooloo, maybe before the half.

Anyone know the officiating crew yet? Ed Hockule, hopefully?

 
At Monday, January 30, 2006 8:34:00 PM, Blogger Tam said...

To give an idea of how long its been since I followed football, which is the NFC team?

The last I remember, Seattle was AFC West and Pittsburgh was AFC East. :o

 
At Tuesday, January 31, 2006 9:40:00 PM, Blogger Rivrdog said...

The coaches are a push, it'll ocme down to which running back is stopped and which one isn't. Seahawks will stop Bettis.

Seattle by 6.

 

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